A recent survey examined some of the reasons behind a projected physician deficit.
The U.S. is expected to have a shortage of up to 64,000 physicians by the end of 2024, according to McKinsey & Company and the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC). Current projections also indicate that the physician deficit could grow to 86,000 by 2036. Healthcare organizations are facing the dire task of meeting increasing patient demands while retaining physicians.
The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated already high levels of burnout among physicians and contributed to unprecedented departure from the healthcare industry. Future healthcare worker shortages will also be the result of nearly 20% of current physicians being aged 65 years and older, meaning they are soon to retire from the industry. The 65 and older age group is expected to rise to 23% of the population by 2050, according to McKinsey & Company, up from 17% currently. Individuals aged 65 years and older are a higher-need patient demographic, a cause for concern given the expanding gap in the physician workforce.
McKinsey & Company recently conducted a physician survey aimed at unearthing the mindsets that may be pushing doctors in the U.S. out of the workforce. The survey highlights an urgent need for healthcare industry organizations to act to combat burnout. Deploying targeted and effective solutions relies upon healthcare organizations both understanding and addressing the root causes of physician burnout and job departure.
Understanding physician shortages
McKinsey & Company based its seventh physician survey on the responses of 631 participants. Findings include survey categories such as physician turnover rates, retention challenges, why physicians leave jobs, workload and wellbeing, flexibility, inclusion in decision making, and delegation of tasks.
Approximately 35% of survey respondents indicated that they are likely to leave their current role in the next five years, according to the survey, and 60% say that they are likely to leave the clinical practice entirely. As physicians’ interest in leaving their position rises, industry turnover will consequentially increase. Fifty-eight percent of respondents showed that their desire to change jobs has grown over the past year.
When asked about the factors that influence a physicians’ decision to leave their job, respondents indicated that family needs were as critical as compensation. In the survey, 69% of respondents flagged a desire for higher remuneration. Other well-being factors, such as the demanding nature, emotional toll, and physical toll of work (66%, 65%, and 61%, respectively), were also key determinants. Other factors include whether the respondent was involved in workplace decision making, if they had sufficient staffing support, and if they had control over their workloads and wellbeing.
More than 60% of physician respondents say that they expect to at least be consulted or have a vote on major decisions within the workplace. The majority of surveyed physicians report that the ability to take time off (87%) is important, while finding coverage when needed (77%) and the ability to work specific hours of the day (69%) are next in line. On the other hand, 38% of physician respondents share that the ability to work remotely is important. Survey respondents said that nearly 20% of their clinical time is spent on tasks that could be handed over to other employees.
McKinsey & Company suggests four priorities for healthcare organizations regarding physician burnout: consideration of compensation and incentive structures, physician lifestyle needs, involvement in decision making, and staffing and support systems.