Home health leaders in “wait and see” approach in current market
Transaction activity in the U.S. home care sector has remained subdued so far this year, weighed down by what one expert calls “fresh uncertainty,” according to a McKnight’s Home Care report. The sluggish pace is attributed to factors such as aggressive Medicaid tax proposals and lingering macroeconomic instability that are sowing caution among potential buyers. As a result, deal volume is significantly lower compared to previous years, with industry leaders adopting a wait and see approach until policy and market clarity improve.
U.S. nursing home spending projected to soar
Skilled Nursing News reported that annual spending on nursing homes and continuing care retirement communities (CCRCs) is projected to nearly double from $192.9 billion in 2022 to $385.9 billion by 2033, according to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ Office of the Actuary. Year over year growth rates are expected at approximately 8.3% in 2024, 8.0% in 2025, then slowing to 6.2% in 2026–27 and around 5.6% annually through 2028 . These projections exclude the potential impact of proposed reconciliation budget changes, which may further influence spending trends.
CMS to launch chain-level nursing home ratings and revamp inspection metrics
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services released a memorandum in June detailing key updates to the Nursing Home Care Compare platform. Beginning July 30, CMS will add aggregated performance data for nursing home chains – including star ratings, inspection outcomes, staffing, and quality measures – displayed in a consumer-friendly layout. In parallel, the agency will drop the oldest “third cycle” standard inspection from the health inspection rating to better reflect current performance and incorporate more comprehensive long stay antipsychotic measures that combine. Medicare/Medicaid claims with existing data. Finally, COVID 19 vaccination rates for residents and staff will be removed from the main profile pages, streamlining reported indicators.
Survey: Nursing home providers “deeply concerned” about potential Medicaid reductions
A recent survey from the American Health Care Association (AHCA) found that an overwhelming majority of nursing home providers were deeply concerned about potential Medicaid reductions. More than one-quarter of respondents report that reductions would force them to close. The survey, conducted by AHCA in May 2025 of 363 nursing home providers, reflects growing concerns by long term care professionals across the country as Congress debated a budget reconciliation package that included federal spending reductions to Medicaid. Highlights from the survey include:
- Nearly two-thirds of nursing home providers report Medicaid reimbursement as less than 80% of the actual cost of care.
- 11 percent of respondents reported that they’re receiving less than 50% of the actual cost of care.
- An overwhelming majority of nursing home providers (92%) are concerned about potential reductions to Medicaid.
- Most are extremely concerned (79%) or moderately concerned (13 %).
- More than 8 in 10 providers say any reduction to or elimination of provider taxes would have a severe impact on their facilities.